The World Bank has maintained its forecast for China’s economic growth at 4.4 percent in 2026, unchanged from its previous projection issued in December 2025, as strong technology investment, resilient exports and supportive policies continue to support the world’s second-largest economy.
According to the World Bank’s latest China Economic Update, China’s economy remained resilient during the early months of 2026, with growth supported by high-tech investment and external demand for technology-intensive goods.
The bank said economic performance could exceed current expectations if fiscal support and artificial intelligence-related investment prove stronger than anticipated.
The World Bank highlighted the growing role of high-tech industries in supporting China’s economic expansion.
Investment in high-tech sectors increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year between January and May 2026, driven by strong domestic and international demand linked to artificial intelligence.
The report noted that accelerating AI-related capital spending has boosted demand for technology components, while supporting China’s exports of technology-intensive products.
“China’s economy stayed resilient in early 2026, supported by strong high-tech investment and exports,” the World Bank said, adding that growth could outperform current projections under favourable conditions.
Energy resilience supports outlook
The World Bank also noted that China’s economy has been able to manage recent global energy market disruptions due to several structural advantages.
These include large oil reserves, diversified energy import sources, a high share of renewable energy in the power mix, and government measures such as temporary retail fuel price controls.
The report said these factors helped reduce the impact of external shocks on economic activity.
However, the bank warned that renewed volatility in global energy supplies and oil prices remains a potential downside risk to China’s growth outlook.
Domestic demand remains priority
The World Bank highlighted China’s continued efforts to strengthen domestic demand as a long-term driver of economic growth.
The country’s 15th Five-Year Plan places domestic consumption and demand expansion at the centre of its development strategy, while giving greater emphasis to employment and social policies.
The bank said these measures reflect a broader shift toward more balanced and sustainable growth, with domestic demand playing a stronger role alongside exports and investment.
Read more: China targets U.S. rare earth companies with new export restrictions
Growth risks remain balanced
The World Bank said risks to China’s economic outlook are broadly balanced, with both upside and downside factors influencing future performance.
Growth could exceed the current forecast if government stimulus measures are stronger than expected and AI-related investment continues to accelerate.
At the same time, global energy market uncertainty and external economic pressures could weigh on growth.
The forecast comes ahead of China’s release of economic data for the first half of 2026 on July 15.
Chinese economists said the country’s economic performance has maintained overall stability while continuing its transition toward innovation-driven and higher-quality development, supported by the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies.
For more news on economy, click here.
