The Portuguese government said Portugal’s economy is expected to grow by 1.5 percent this year, which is in line with the projections made in the 2024 State Budget. This figure is also a tenth lower than the macroeconomic forecasts outlined in the election manifesto of the Democratic Alliance (DA).
The economic projection is included in the Stability Program (SP) 2024-2028, which the government sent to the Portuguese parliament on Monday. The program will also be submitted to the European Commission this month.
The Stability Program, approved by the Portuguese cabinet on April 11, will be discussed in parliament on April 24. The Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) has decided not to comment on the SP, as it is based on a no-policy-change scenario.
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The government estimates the budget surplus will end this year at 0.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), down from a surplus of 1.2 percent in 2023, as detailed in the Stability Program for 2024-28.
Separately, the Bank of Portugal has forecast 2 percent economic growth in 2024.
The minority government, which took office just last month, based its projections on unchanged policies compared to the previous centre-left administration and on economic information available up to April 5. The government has not yet projected the impact that its proposed measures, such as tax cuts and pay hikes, will have on GDP or the budget balance.
Additionally, the Finance Ministry forecasts GDP growth of 1.5 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2025, based on information available up to March 31.
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