Japan might currently be grappling with what some are calling a severe population crisis. Recent government data has revealed a concerning decline of over half a million (531,700) people in 2023. This decline is primarily driven by a record low number of births, which reached just 730,000, and a record high number of deaths at 1.58 million.
Increasing foreign resident population
The data also highlights a significant increase in the foreign resident population, which has surpassed 3 million for the first time, now making up nearly 3 percent of the total population. These foreign residents are predominantly of working age, from 15 to 64 years old. However, despite the low fertility rates and ageing population experienced by Japan and other developed nations, the country has been reluctant to rely on immigration to address its population concerns.
Projected population decline
Japan’s population has been in decline since its peak of 128 million in 2008, reaching 125 million in 2022 and 124.9 million in 2023. If this trend continues, the population is projected to further decline to just 63 million by 2100, according to the East Asia Forum.
Declining birth rates, changing societal attitudes
The primary drivers of this population crisis are low birth rates and changing societal attitudes towards marriage and family. Japan’s birth rate has declined from 9.5 births per 1,000 women in 2000 to just 6.8 per 1,000 in 2020. The mortality rate has exceeded the birth rate by a significant margin, contributing to the negative population growth.
Sex ratio and ageing population
Furthermore, the sex ratio in Japan is 0.949 as of December 31, 2023, meaning there are 949 males for every 1,000 females. The proportion of the population aged over 65 has increased from 17.4 percent in 2000 to 29.0 percent in 2022 and is projected to rise to 41.2 percent by 2100.
Reluctance to marry and have children
The reluctance of younger Japanese to marry and have children is driven by factors such as bleak job prospects, the high cost of living, and a gender-biased corporate culture that places a disproportionate burden on working mothers. The high cost of living is particularly problematic for low-income households, where the average disposable income of a household headed by a non-regular worker is only about 60 percent of that of a household headed by a regular worker.
Consequences for Japan’s workforce, economy, and social fabric
These demographic shifts have far-reaching consequences for Japan’s workforce, economy, welfare systems, and social fabric. The country’s industries are facing labor shortages, and some rural communities are struggling with declining populations, with one village going 25 years without a single birth.
Government initiatives and reliance on foreign workers
The Japanese government has implemented various initiatives to encourage marriage and childbirth, such as enhancing childcare services and offering housing subsidies. However, these efforts have not been effective in reversing the declining trend. The country is also becoming increasingly reliant on foreign workers, implementing new visa rules to address the labor shortages.
Read more: Over 40 percent of Japanese firms remain hesitant to adopt AI: Survey
What does Japan’s future hold?
If the current trend continues, Japan will likely face significant challenges in maintaining its pension and healthcare systems, as well as other social infrastructure that relies on a growing workforce. The population is projected to decline by about 30 percent to 87 million by 2070, with four out of every 10 people aged 65 or older, according to estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
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