World food commodity prices fell for the second consecutive month in October 2025, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, signaling easing inflationary pressures on global food markets despite some commodity-specific fluctuations. The latest FAO Food Price Index averaged 126.4 points last month, down 1.6 percent from a revised 128.5 points in September 2025, marking a continued downward trend driven mainly by ample supplies and favorable production conditions worldwide.
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, including cereals, dairy, meat, sugar, and vegetable oils. October’s average of 126.4 points is slightly below the October 2024 level and represents a 21.1 percent decline from the peak reached in March 2022 during the height of pandemic-related supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions that spiked food prices worldwide. This recent fall reflects recovering production and more balanced global markets.
Cereal prices decline amid abundant supplies
Cereal prices decreased by 1.3 percent in October, continuing a softening trend as global supplies remain abundant. The wheat price index fell by 1.0 percent, coarse grains by 1.1 percent, and rice by 2.5 percent. The global cereal production forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to a record 2.99 billion metric tons, a 4.4 percent increase from 2024. This expected record output results from favorable growing conditions in both hemispheres, including optimistic winter wheat planting progress in the northern hemisphere and strong southern hemisphere harvests. With supply outpacing demand growth, cereal utilization is projected to rise moderately by 1.8 percent in the 2025/26 marketing year, mainly due to increased feed use.
The FAO Dairy Price Index dropped by 3.4 percent in October, led by significant declines in butter prices due to ample export availabilities from producers such as the European Union and New Zealand. Prices for milk powders also fell, reflecting limited import demand and strong competition in international markets. Similarly, the FAO Meat Price Index declined by 2 percent, driven by sharp drops in pig and poultry prices. However, bovine (beef) meat prices bucked the downward trend, rising due to firm global demand and higher quotations from Australia. This divergence highlights varied market dynamics within animal protein sectors.
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Sugar prices fall as vegetable oils rise
The FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 5.3 percent—its lowest level since December 2020—spurred by strong production in Brazil and expectations of significant output gains in Thailand and India. Additionally, lower crude oil prices exerted downward pressure on sugar prices by reducing demand from the biofuel sector, which uses sugarcane for ethanol production. These factors combined to decrease sugar market tightness and contribute to the overall drop in food commodity prices.
Contrasting the broad fall in food prices, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose by 0.9 percent in October, reaching its highest level since July 2022. Price increases were seen across palm, rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower oils. Several factors explain this price surge, including tightening supplies due to harvest delays in the Black Sea region, biofuel obligations driving demand, and other logistical challenges affecting major producing areas. This upward pressure on vegetable oil prices stands out amid the general price softening across other food categories.
